Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
