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China has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing escalates tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.