🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

Yet the latest field is profoundly different. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and recent strugglers ascending in unison. In an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still