War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which sparked massive protests and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".